Obligatory Election Post

It's high time I contributed my deeply misinformed opinions to the post-election discussion, so here we go. At this point I'm making the assumption that the next government will be a Conservative-Lib Dem pact, but that could be superseded.

From a strategic point of view, I think this actually went surprisingly well for the Labour Party. Having been in power for 13 years, with a major recession on and a deeply unpopular Prime Minister, they were still comfortably the second party in the popular vote and are only about 60 seats off winning power back in the next General Election. Bearing in mind also that this election may be sooner rather than later, that it will not be fought with Brown as leader, and that the party will be the opposition to a government that has made severe spending cuts, things look alright in the medium term.

Conversely, this might be something of a pyrrhic victory for the Conservatives. Given everything that Labour had against them, Cameron failed to actually convince the country that he was better, and managed to squander a 27-point lead in the polls in the process. While he will now be Prime Minister, this is going to be at the cost of a pact with another party - ideologically deeply unpleasant to the Conservatives - and will almost certainly be at the cost of some sort of commitment to the kind of electoral reform the party definitely doesn't want. For Cameron himself, having failed to deliver a fully functional Conservative government is going to hurt him within the party, in which there is already a substantial wing which can't abide him. If/when things get tough for his government, this is a weapon which will be used against him.

Which brings us to the Liberal Democrats, perhaps the most disappointed of the parties, given the failure of Clegg's performances in the TV debates to transform into both the popular vote and seats. The one saving grace they have is that they are now crucial to any larger party which seeks to have a stable government, allowing them to push for the sort of Proportional Representation which will make them a proper player in British politics. The problem is trying to get this to work with Cameron and the Conservatives, who are deeply against it. It'll be interesting to see what Clegg can get: a referendum on PR seems likely, but will he be able to make it binding if it's favourable? Of course, he can pull the plug on Cameron's government if they stall on it, which is a nice card to have.

From a personal point of view, although a Labour-Lib Dem pact would have been preferable, Cameron as PM may be worth it if it also delivers PR. The most impressive result to me was the Green victory in Brighton Pavilion, a remarkable achievement for a small party in the current system, and hopefully a sign that there may be more Green seats in certain types of constituency. And Griffin was told to fuck off, which is probably the one result that unites all the supporters of other parties in joy.

Anyway, we're in for an interesting period, politically.